Imagine a bet with a 99% chance of winning.
Would you place your bet without hesitation?
If you did, you’d fall into the trap of the layer’s Expected Value!
What is Expected Value?
Expected Value (EV) is the amount a player expects to win or lose when making multiple bets at the same odds.
Here’s a simple example of Expected Value (EV):
If you bet $100 on heads in a coin toss, and each time you win, you get $110, the EV is +5.
This means that if you keep betting on heads, you can expect to win $5 each time you bet $100.
How is Expected Value Calculated?
The formula for EV = (Probability of Winning) x (Amount Won per Bet) — (Probability of Losing) x (Amount Lost per Bet)
How to Interpret Expected Value?
Positive EV indicates it’s worth betting in the long run.
Negative EV suggests a higher chance of losing in the long term.
Examples of Expected Value in Sports Betting
To calculate the EV of a bet, you need two parameters:
Predicted Probability of Winning.
The Odds offered by the platform.
For example, in a Lakers vs. Warriors game with odds for Lakers at 2.3 and for Warriors at 1.7, with a predicted win probability of 60% for Lakers and 40% for Warriors, if using $100 bet:
The EV of betting on the Lakers is:
(60% x 130) — (40% x 100) = +38
The EV of betting on the Warriors is:
(40% x 70) — (60% x 100) = -32
So, following the EV strategy, you should bet on the Lakers with a +38 EV.
How to Use Expected Value Betting?
Remember that a negative EV doesn’t guarantee you’ll lose money. Unlike flipping a coin, where the probability of heads and tails is 50%, sports events involve subjectivity.
So, if you’re more thoughtful than the bookmakers, you might make a profit.
Using AI to analyze win probabilities allows for multidimensional and precise data predictions. Companies like Mysports.AI use AI and machine learning, utilizing the past 10 years of sports data to create unique event prediction models for analyzing popular sports like soccer, baseball, and basketball.
When AI predictions are more accurate than those from human bookmakers, profit opportunities arise.
You also need a platform with better odds. Additionally, set a consistent betting pattern. For instance, if you’ve set your stake at 100 dollars per bet, avoid adjusting it on impulse, as varying your bets based on human emotions often leads to capital loss.